Covid-19 (Coronavirus)
Alright so at this point I am far late to this but I felt like maybe I could help some people by piecing together some things about what is going on now, and, hopefully, put some people’s minds at a little bit of ease, since panic is also contagious, and shitloads of people seem to be freaking out when they likely don’t need too.
To start:
For anyone seeking simple stats about this I have found two sights which I like so far.
The first site I have been using to watch this is Worldometers. There are write ups and documentation but there is also a lot of statistical data on this site rolling in, which I like.
The Second is Kaiser Family Foundation or KFF. The world map is a good overview to see where the most cases lie.
Both of these sites give off simple info graphic or numeric stats which I always find easier than reading a lot of medical technical jargon. Personally cus I’m a slow reader and secondly cus stats are straight forwards (usually).
I have not fully vetted these sites myself, but their stats are quite similar to others like the CDC and the WHO, though their numbers are lower than the numbers of the WHO. So far I think they seem to be fairly accurate, given how easy it will be to lose numbers of things during an such an event. Also this depends of how delayed their statistics are coming in, or how often they are updated, so keep that in mind.
If you don’t mind reading then feel free to continue and maybe I can share some info with you that you did not have before.
Alright, so the first thing I want to point out to everyone here is that you should all know that this toilet paper panic seems to have started in Australia, with their PM telling people to panic, and that seems to have caused a ripple effect.
He allegedly (I can’t find the article now but I read it weeks ago when this started) told Australians that ALL TP was created in CHINA, so it would run out because of the quarantine, and hence, everyone ran to buy TP before it would all, allegedly, run out. And now it has.
Thanks PM Morrison, for sending the world into panic over TP *exaggerated thumbs up!!*
Seriously, how did this dill hole get into office?
On a side note:
A) China does not have all the trees or TP factories in the world and
B) China is the main hub for the virus, so your idea was to grab everything from there that you could?
I am perplexed.
I can verify that A) is not true; there is an Irving Tissue Corporation factory literally 2 city blocks north of me. Last I saw, it was still running.
So, I guess this PM wanted to go the opposite of what he did during the wildfire situation, and instead of going on vacation this time – not asking for help, and pretending it was all good – this time he decided to go full Denethor – “Abandon your posts! Flee, flee for your lives!” – and whipped everyone into a full frenzy about Toilet Paper….
I don’t want to negate how serious this virus obviously is, but how does toilet paper relate to a respiratory virus? Are you all making masks from shit tickets?
Anyways, stop hoarding. Seriously, you need to keep going about your life as usual but with just a few more precautions. Honestly, this isn’t much different from 2 months ago. You still won’t talk to strangers on the bus, or your neighbours, you still shouldn’t sneeze or cough on people, and you should stay home/see a doctor/see if someone else can help take care of you if you are feeling sick.
If you are worried about this, don’t hoard TP like it’s the end of days. Get 2 week’s worth of stuff, and stay inside of that long. Allegedly that is how long symptoms take to show, so by then you might know if you have it. Grocery stores and the like are not planning to close as far as I have heard, at least around me.
All hoarding people have done is increased sales for those companies, caused panic and scarcity, and forced other to stretch or go without. AND you made yourselves look like greedy assholes.
Honestly, I’m still going about my day here in Toronto. I went to the LCBO yesterday. Everything was normal. In less than 2 weeks I am planning to get into the new work season. I’m gonna be on the Subway/Bus to work and I’m gonna be around people for 8+ hrs a day, doing dirty work. Obviously I’m not going to be stupid about all this, it is real, but I’m also not panicking, and here is why.
I, personally, am at a low risk for this. According to the stats of Worldometer, for my age range, if I should contract or even if I have the virus now somehow, there is allegedly a 0.2% of me dying from this. Ya that’s scary. This thing could kill me. But this also means that, even if or when I get this, there is a 99.98% I will (hopefully) make it. Still scary? Yes a little. But for me at least, this doesn’t pose a significant threat. So, instead, I must just be smart, and considerate for other people, as we always should be anyways.
Now, the stats change in different age groups, and that’s where the real concern comes in, along with, obviously the fact that if you have a weakened immune system; this virus will pose a bigger threat to people that are physically or immune suppressed. Hence, why age and ailment are a factor with this so much.
Once you are over the age of 50-59, the death rate jumps to 1.4%, and grows exponentially, to 15-20% at ages 80+. So yes, this virus is a big deal, and it is hurting and killing a lot of people, and I am legitimately concerned for people that are older. But again, I also realize I am not at that great of risk, so my panic helps no one.
At this point, ladies and gents, this is starting to feel like a test. A test of our nerves, our resourcefulness, and our compassion. Too bad a chunk of you are clearly failing in at least 1 of these categories. Again I’m looking at you hoarders, or the media, or anyone else out there that is trying to use this to an end of their own. After this is all said and done, I hope your friends and family that are left punch you in the mouth for being such selfish assholes when you likely didn’t need to be. But again, panic and stupidity can be contagious, and I guess I can’t really blame people, when all of their info comes from idiot PM’s and from sensationalist media.
So, what I want to show everyone are these stats here. In particular I am paying attention to the Death Rates so far overall, vs the total cases of infected. Be careful here because this is far different than deaths vs recovered cases. I’ll show both.
So far, according to the WHO, there are 142,538 cases of Covid-19 worldwide, in 135 countries (again these stats very site to site), with 5391 deaths.
I am looking at the situation like this because it is, in my opinion, the simplest way to do so. Who has survived/is currently infected vs who has unfortunately perished.
So, 5,391/142,538 = 0.038~
0.038×100 = 3.8% mortality rate
Again, this number is based on everyone that currently has or has had the virus.
According to Worldometer 73,731 people have successfully recovered. So, if you want to exclude everyone else that is currently fighting against the virus, we get:
5391/73,731 = 0.073
0.073×100 = 7.3% mortality rate
So, ultimately, this virus has killed 7.3% of the people that it has moved through. Again, this all depends with your age and current health but overall, this is the simplest number.
I know that is going to look very scary. 3.8% of everyone it has touched so far, and 7.3% of everyone that has moved through. Again, it’s a scary stat, but that still means a 92.7% chance at surviving overall. I’m trying to be the optimist here.
Again, I don’t want to downplay how real this is, especially for certain peoples but I think some knowledge and stats could help a lot of us feel a little bit better. You are more afraid of what you don’t understand, right?
To put this in perspective, although these other viruses were spread no were near as far globally, SARS had a death rate of 9.6% by the end, and MERS had a rate of 34%. Thankfully they did not spread to anywhere near as many people, which is where the massive danger of this virus comes from – it has spread to damn far.
This is just how I am breaking down the stats, to try and make sense of things. Even on worldometers they warn that this is not a 100% accurate way to predict, as there are going to be variables. The statement below is from their website —–>>>>>
“How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude […]
A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.“
So, take all this information and do as you will with it. I can only lead you to it I cannot force you to drink it in, or believe it, but hopefully it will help calm some nerves.
In closing, please ladies and gents, just have some common sense about this, try to avoid CNN syndrome and panicking, and just be a decent human being. Help people if you can. Again, this is going to test our mettle, and I really hope those of us that are ok and come together as well as the medical community has, to try and help the situation, not make it worse or others.
For anyone that likes videos rather than anything else, here is a short (1:45Min) video from Dr. Sohail Gandhi with the OMA (Ontario Medical Association), with all those same basic tips about how to avoid it and what we know about the virus so far. I also used to be a patient of Dr. Gandhi so I want to say, I really do trust his advice.
Alright folks that’s all I’ve got for now.
I hope your all doing good out there.
As always peoples, take care of yourself and each other if you can.
JAC
Sources:
Worldometers.info
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.kff.org/
https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker/
https://www.who.int/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/infectious-diseases/a-infectious-diseases.html#C
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html
https://www.cdc.gov/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/world-map.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Flocations-confirmed-cases.html
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0Ev7cXBtjA&fbclid=IwAR0z6fa8w0Hd3-zrsrGsIhkgfuZG7Sde33HALpggaihBnyICwikk2WRejvo
Image from: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/virus-microscope-infection-illness-1812092/
